MBA hires two new Realtors

MBA Real Estate has announced that Sonia Erives and Lorena Montoya have joined the agency as Realtors.

Erives is a newly licensed Realtor and is currently office manager at MBA Real Estate with a background in property management. She is also a member of Garden City Board of Realtors, National Association of Realtors and Kansas Association of Realtors. Erives and her husband, Osvaldo Erives, live in Garden City with their four children.

Montoya is a member of Garden City Board of Realtors, National Association of Realtors and Kansas Association of Realtors. She is bilingual in Spanish and English. 

 

Hurricanes contribute to drop in pending sales in August

The rate of pending home sales in the United States dropped for the second month in a row in August, according to the National Association of Realtors. The organization blames recent hurricanes and persistent shortages in the number of available homes for the slowdown, and now expects that fewer existing homes will be sold this year than in 2017.

August marked the fifth time in the past six months that pending sales have been slower than the previous month, and the fourth time in five months that the rate has fallen from the previous year. The Pending Home Sales Index for August stood at 106.3, down 2.6 percent from both July and August 2016. This reading was the lowest since January 2016, which had an index of 106.1

The Pending Home Sales Index is a measure of transactions where a contract has been signed but not yet finalized. This action typically happens within two months, making the index a forward-looking indicator of existing home sales. An index of 100 is equal to contract activity in 2001, which had an existing home sales rate of 5 million to 5.5 million; this is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said the impact of Hurricane Harvey in Texas and Hurricane Irma in Florida contributed to a drop in pending home sales in the South. However, he continued to suggest that a limited number of homes for sale continued to stymie buyers at the end of the summer.

“August was another month of declining contract activity because of the one-two punch of limited listings and home prices rising far above incomes,” said Yun. “Demand continues to overwhelm supply in most of the country, and as a result, many would-be buyers from earlier in the year are still in the market for a home, while others have perhaps decided to temporarily postpone their search.”

Yun said he believes that the momentum of home sales observed earlier in the year has stalled, so he has downgraded his earlier forecasts of existing home sales. He now predicts that there will be about 5.44 million sales in 2017, down 0.2 percent from the previous year, while median home prices will climb by 6 percent. In 2016, existing home sales were up 3.8 percent from the previous year while median prices climbed by 5.1 percent.

Despite this setback, Yun was optimistic about the future, saying the hurricanes’ effect is only temporary and that any sales delayed by the storms will be made up next year.

“The good news is that nearly all of the missed closings for the remainder of the year will likely show up in 2018, with existing sales forecast to rise 6.9 percent,” he said.

None of the four geographic regions outlined by the National Association of Realtors saw growth in pending sales in August. The Pending Home Sales Index for the Northeast stood at 93.4, down 4.4 percent from July and 4.1 percent from August 2016. The Midwest index of 101.8 was a drop of 1.5 percent from the previous month and 3.2 percent from the previous year.

The South had the largest decrease from the previous month, with its index falling 3.5 percent to 118.8; this also marked a year-over-year decrease of 1.7 percent. In the West, the Pending Home Sales Index fell 1 percent from July and 2.4 percent from August 2016 to 101.3.

Sandy Siegel Earns NAR Designation in Seniors Real Estate

CHEROKEE, Iowa – Sandy Siegel of Gustafson Realty has earned the nationally recognized Seniors Real Estate Specialist designation from the Seniors Real Estate Specialist Council of the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Siegel joins more than 15,000 real estate professionals in North America who have earned the SRES designation. All were required to successfully complete a comprehensive course in understanding the needs, considerations and goals of real estate buyers and sellers aged 55 and older.

SRES Council, founded in 2007, is the worlds largest association of real estate professional focusing specifically on representing senior clients in real estate transactions. There are more than 15,000 active members of the organization world-wide.

SRES Council states, Working with seniors to meet their housing needs requires an expert understanding of their lifestyle and financial needs, and the SRES designation means that a realtor has hat understanding. Whether they are buying, selling, relocating or refinancing, seniors can be confident that a relator who has been designated SRES will be able to help them every step of the way.

Mortgage rates jump as bond selloff drags on and housing runs out of steam

Rates for home loans jumped to a six-week high as bonds sold off in the wake of hawkish comments from the central bank and expectations for tax reform, mortgage provider Freddie Mac said Thursday.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.85% during the October 5 week, up two basis points. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.15%, also up two basis points. The 5-year Treasury-adjusted hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3.18%, down from 3.20%.

Mortgage rates have resumed their close relationship with the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury

TMUBMUSD10Y, +1.42%

yield. Treasurys soared after the November presidential election, when investors began to anticipate stronger economic growth, inflation from tax cuts, and less regulation.

Bond yields rise when prices decline.

Also read: Blacks make up 13% of the population but only got 6% of the mortgages last year

That so-called Trump Trade unwound over the first half of the year, but sprang back to life in the past few weeks after Washington Republicans advanced tax reform plans and investors continued to anticipate more hawkish moves from the Federal Reserve.

Several Fed officials have suggested they remain on track to continue raising interest rates even as inflation remains tepid. Higher rates would diminish the value of bonds that have already been issued.

Also read: Yellen says Fed should be ‘wary’ of raising rates ‘too gradually’

Rates for home loans follow bond yields with a bit of a lag. Treasurys rebounded earlier this week as investors gauged the September selloff to be excessive, so mortgage rates may creep lower next week.

Meanwhile, momentum in the housing market has stalled amid a dearth of supply. That prompted the National Association of Realtors to cut its forecast for 2017 sales last month. The trade group now expects full-year sales will be lower than in 2016.

2017 Realtor® Good Neighbor Award Winners Better Communities Through Incredible Volunteer Work

WASHINGTON, Oct. 4, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — For 18 years, the Good Neighbor Awards have recognized Realtors® who dedicate countless volunteer hours to help others.  The five individuals named as this year’s REALTOR® Magazine Good Neighbor Award winners serve as an example of how Realtors® reach out in service to help their communities.

National Association of Realtors logo (PRNewsFoto/National Association of Realtors)

The 2017 Good Neighbor Award winners are:

  • Sal Dimiceli, Lake Geneva Area Realty, Lake Geneva, Wisconsin, founder of The Time Is Now To Help;
  • Bryson Garbett, Garbett Homes, Salt Lake City, Utah, founder of Foundation Escalera;
  • Howard W. “Hoddy” Hanna, III, Howard Hanna Real Estate Services, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, for Howard Hanna Children’s Free Care Fund;
  • Louise McLean, RE/MAX Solutions, Merritt Island, Florida, founder of Space Coast Association of REALTORS® Charitable Foundation;
  • Kay Wilson-Bolton, Century 21 Troop Real Estate, Santa Paula, California, founder of SPIRIT of Santa Paula.

“It’s amazing how the passion of this year’s Good Neighbor Award winners spurs a ripple effect of generosity among others,” says National Association of Realtors® President William E. Brown, broker-owner of Investment Real Estate in Oakland, California, and founder of Investment Properties. “In addition to devoting thousands of personal volunteer hours and recruiting thousands of volunteer hours from others, this year’s five winners have raised and donated more than $39 million to support their communities.”

Each of the five winners will receive a $10,000 grant for their cause and will be featured in the November/December issue of REALTOR® Magazine. The recipients will be presented with crystal trophies on Saturday, November 4, during the 2017 REALTORS® Conference Expo in Chicago.

The Good Neighbor Awards have been presented annually since 2000 by NAR’s REALTOR® Magazine.  More than $1.1 million in grants have been awarded to the winners’ charities since the inaugural award. Videos about the winners are being released today at the links below.

Sal Dimiceli, Sr., Lake Geneva Area Realty, Lake Geneva, Wisconsin for The Time Is Now To Help
Dimiceli founded a nonprofit to ease the suffering of people living in poverty. He personally responds to requests for help by providing financial counseling and addressing individual needs, whether it’s paying overdue rent to prevent eviction or providing emergency food assistance, transportation or child care so a person can hold a job.

Bryson Garbett, Garbett Homes, Salt Lake City, Utah for Foundation Escalera
Garbett founded a nonprofit that provides access to education to children in the rural Chiapas region of Mexico. In 18 years, his organization—which has built 177 classrooms and provides high school scholarships—has helped nearly 100,000 students.

Howard W. “Hoddy” Hanna, III, Howard Hanna Real Estate Services, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania for Howard Hanna Children’s Free Care Fund
Hanna leads a nonprofit that donates millions to children’s hospitals to fund treatment for children without insurance or whose treatment isn’t covered by insurance. Since 1987, Hanna and his company’s 9,000 real estate professionals in eight states have raised and donated more than $14 million. 

Louise McLean, RE/MAX Solutions, Merritt Island, Florida for Space Coast Association of REALTORS® Charitable Foundation  
McLean founded a nonprofit to support the more than 2,200 homeless children in Florida’s Brevard County with necessities such as food, clothing, school supplies, glasses and toiletries. They also provide nonessentials like sports equipment, band instruments and even college scholarships, allowing children to further their education. 

Kay Wilson-Bolton, Century 21 Troop Real Estate, Santa Paula, California for SPIRIT of Santa Paula
Wilson-Bolton founded Many Meals, which feeds up to 600 people a hot meal every Wednesday. She also distributes 30,000 pounds of food per month through a food bank and, as an ordained chaplain, runs a reception center behind her real estate office where she counsels people in need. 

In addition to the winners, five Realtors® have been recognized as Good Neighbor Awards honorable mentions and will each receive $2,500 grants. Deborah Berg, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, Birmingham, Michigan, for the United Methodist Women’s Rummage Sale; JoAnn and Joseph Callaway, Those Callaways Real Estate, Scottsdale, Arizona for Salvation Army; Lara Dolan, Keller Williams Realty Consultants, Roswell, Georgia for Cystic Fibrosis Foundation; Mony Nop, Mony Nop Real Estate, Livermore, California for Mony Nop Foundation; Donna Ting, Tri Isle Realty Development Co., Wailuku, Hawaii for La’akea.

Since the 10 finalists were announced on September 5, the public cast more than 93,000 votes to determine who would be named the Web Choice Favorites. The top three vote getters will receive bonus grant money courtesy of Good Neighbor primary sponsor realtor.com®. 

The Good Neighbor finalist with the most votes– JoAnn and Joseph Callaway of Those Callaways Real Estate in Scottsdale, Arizona–will receive an additional $2,500 bonus donation for The Salvation Army on top of $2,500 earned for being an honorable mention. The Callaways have raised more than $1.25 million to benefit The Salvation Army by recruiting Realtors as bell ringers and through an innovative program that increased donations of big-ticket items to thrift stores.

Two more Good Neighbors will receive $1,250 in bonus money for getting the next highest vote totals. Deborah Berg of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices in Birmingham, Michigan, for managing more than 700 volunteers at the United Methodist Women’s Rummage Sale and raising $225,000 per year for nonprofits.

Deborah is joined by Howard W. “Hoddy” Hanna, III of Howard Hanna Real Estate Services, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who cofounded and leads the Howard Hanna Children’s Free Care Fund, which pays for sick children to be treated at hospitals when insurance doesn’t pay.

REALTOR®Magazine‘s Good Neighbor Awards is supported by primary sponsor realtor.com® and Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. Nominees were judged on their personal contribution of time as well as financial and material contributions to benefit their cause. To be eligible, nominees must be NAR members in good standing. More information about the Good Neighbor Awards winners is available at nar.realtor/gna.

Realtor.com® is the trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers, offering the most comprehensive database of for-sale properties, among competing national sites, and the information, tools and professional expertise to help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today helps make all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. 

Wells Fargo Home Mortgage is the nation’s leading originator and servicer of residential mortgages, offering home loans to consumers through the country’s largest network of mortgage locations and bank branches, online, and via phone. With more than 7,500 Home Mortgage Consultants across the country and robust digital capabilities, Wells Fargo is committed to meeting Realtor® expectations and homebuyer needs. Focused on a culture of caring for communities, Wells Fargo is a proud sponsor of the Good Neighbor Awards to recognize the extraordinary contributions made by Realtors® in the communities where we, together, live and serve. 

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing over 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the “News, Blogs and Videos” tab on the website.

 

View original content with multimedia:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/2017-realtor-good-neighbor-award-winners-better-communities-through-incredible-volunteer-work-300531013.html

SOURCE National Association of Realtors

Poloncarz, Higgins urge Congress to preserve "SALT" tax deduction

A Republican federal tax reform plan would be disastrous to homeowners, and to the local economy. That’s the assessment of two local Democrats who joined with the representative of a local realtors’ group to reject a proposal eliminating a tax deduction that’s been in place for more than a century.

The State and Local Tax deduction, or SALT, has been in place since 1913. It would be removed under a tax reform plan under consideration in Washington.

Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz speaks in his office about a federal tax reform plan that would eliminate state and local tax deductions (SALT). Listening from left to right are John Leonardi, chief executive officer of the Buffalo Niagara Association of Realtors, and Congressman Brian Higgins. Credit Michael Mroziak, WBFO

 

Congressman Brian Higgins says what the proposal amounts to is a break for the nation’s wealthiest people, but not so much for millions more Americans.

“The proposed tax reform that the Trump Administration is pushing, and that the leadership in the House and Senate are supporting, would give three million very wealthy Americans a tax cut each year of over $220,000,” Higgins said. “That same plan that they’re pushing would give 250 million Americans, the people that you I know, a tax cut of about $200.”

But Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz says those same people would also see tax increases with no more state or local levies for which they may claim a deduction. He estimates the net result as an $815 increase for homeowners. 

“If there’s $815 more dollars that have to be paid by the average homeowner on an annual basis, that’s $815 they won’t have in their pockets to go shopping, to go to Bills games, to go to stores, to go to entertainment, which means that’s a loss of sales tax,” Poloncarz said. 

The home selling industry warns that the elimination of SALT would also deal an economic blow to the housing market. The National Association of Realtors commissioned Price Waterhouse Coopers to conduct a study on just how much losing SALT would impact real estate. The report suggests average home values would quickly drop 10 percent because the loss of SALT would take many would-be home buyers off the market.

Information provided by Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz’s office lists the most recent numbers available showing the economic impact of state and local tax (SALT) deductions on the eight counties of Western New York. Credit Office of Erie County Executive

“According to the IRS, nearly 80 percent of the mortgage interest payments claimed on deductions are from incomes of $200,000 or less,” said John Leonardi, chief executive officer of the Buffalo Niagara Association of Realtors. “Eliminating the deduction for state and local taxes flies in the fact of fundamental tax policy principle, avoiding double taxation.”

Poloncarz added that if there’s a value decrease in the housing market, Erie County loses funds from another important revenue source. Like Higgins, the county executive considers the Trump tax reform plan one designed to benefit the rich at the expense of working class Americans.

“That is unethical. It is uncalled for and something that cannot happen,” he said.

Congressman Higgins has vowed to oppose any effort to eliminate SALT. He sits on the House Ways and Means Committee. So, too, does Republican Congressman Tom Reed. Poloncarz is urging those represented by Reed and Republican Chris Collins to urge their opposition to eliminating the state and local deduction.

Realtors: Don’t penalize homeowners

On paper, the key promise of a higher standard deduction looks simple: tax savings for middle-class families.

In reality, there’s a homeowner tax hike hiding in plain sight.

The recent tax-reform framework doubles the standard deduction from $6,350 to $12,000 for single filers, and from $12,700 to $24,000 for joint filers. The proposals pay for this higher standard deduction, in part, by eliminating the personal exemptions currently in the tax code.

OUR VIEW:GOP tax plan gives renters a break

The smallest families might do well under such a proposal, but it poses a threat to others. The result is a likely tax increase on millions of middle-class homeowners, who take advantage of current-law incentives for homeownership.

You read that correctly: A large number of middle-income Americans will see a tax increase. That’s too high a price to pay for limited “simplification” of the tax code.

In addition, the near doubling of the standard deduction means all but the top 5% of American tax filers won’t itemize. That nullifies the incentive effect of the mortgage interest deduction and essentially ends a century-long tradition of encouraging homeownership through the tax code.

Additionally, tax filers will still need to calculate whether or not to itemize, eliminating a great deal of the simplification promised by the higher standard deduction.

Everyone wants lower taxes, and Realtors are strong believers in lowering rates when done in a way that’s fiscally responsible and makes sense. Saddling homeowners with a larger tax bill, or picking winners and losers between families, does neither.

William E. Brown is president of the National Association of Realtors.

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3 ways to use emotional intelligence with sellers

After two days of studying the neighborhood, pouring over compareables and tailoring your listing presentation to this specific seller, you ring the doorbell.

The butterflies are aflutter in your stomach, but you’re amped to show these sellers exactly why you’re the right real estate agent to handle one of the largest transactions of their lives.

You know that when the sellers answer the door, it’s go time.

It’s not uncommon for a real estate agent to walk into a listing presentation feeling a bit nervous, excited or just plain anxious.

But it’s important to keep your emotions in check if you want to successfully navigate the listing presentation and earn the sellers’ business.

You can use emotional intelligence to help you through this sometimes nerve-wracking meeting.

Emotional intelligence theory suggests that by adapting your responses or reactions in a given situation, you can achieve a desired outcome when dealing with others.

Emotional intelligence

An emotionally intelligent person is said to have a knack for dealing with others effectively.

Because real estate professionals regularly interact with others, it is beneficial to use principles of emotional intelligence as a means of increasing interpersonal success.

Below, you’ll find three ways you can use emotional intelligence during a listing presentation to achieve maximum success with sellers.

1. Avoid talking about the neighbors

Resist the urge to build rapport by sharing seemingly innocent facts about neighbors.

Although your intent may be to help, the sellers may be testing you and may look at what you reveal about others as a reflection of how you will treat them in the future.

I’m not referring to information that is considered to be confidential under your fiduciary responsibility, but rather the seemingly innocent information that may be categorized as “public knowledge.”

For example, imagine that you recently sold a house due to a nasty divorce. Everyone knows infidelity was involved because the betrayed spouse moved out, and the lover moved in to live with the remaining spouse until the settlement took place.

If this matter were to come up during your listing presentation, you should refrain from making any comment whatsoever.

Consider it a test, and avoid engaging the sellers. Perhaps create a default response that you can use to tactfully change the subject.

2. Know when to discuss the competition

Similar to why you should not talk about the neighbors, discussing other agents should also be avoided.

One approach is to have a standard response available should the seller mention a competitor.

For example, if the seller says “Agent Sally sold my neighbor’s house in one week, and we are interviewing her next.” A default response could be to say nothing and move on.

It’s not necessary to engage in a dialogue on every point raised. In a situation where you are familiar with the agent, you could adjust the remainder of your listing presentation to focus on the strengths that you bring to the sellers.

Naturally, there are instances when you must engage, just proceed cautiously.

3. Use facts not anecdotal information

Whenever possible, use credible data to support your statements so that you come across as competent and trustworthy. Avoid using unreliable or anecdotal information; by using reliable information, it is difficult for a seller to dispute the source of the data or its methodology.

You also avoid hurting feelings by sticking to the facts.

You can easily obtain credible data from sites such as the United States Census Bureau or the National Association of Realtors. By using verifiable facts, you will come across as credible, which can lead to effective communication between you and your sellers.

For example, rather than saying to a seller “You have a dated kitchen,” instead, try saying “According to a new study published by the National Association of Realtors, 95 percent of all buyers expect to have xyz feature in a home that is listed in the top 10 percent of market values.”

Using this tactic is pre-emptively overcoming seller objections in a diplomatic manner that can minimize hurt feelings or offending anyone unintentionally.

By avoiding these three things, you will be able to effectively communicate with sellers during a listing presentation and come across as professional, trustworthy and competent.

Establishing a default response will allow you to quickly and gracefully respond when caught off guard.

Ayisha Sereni is the president of The Main Line School of Real Estate in Wayne, Pennsylvania. Follow her on Twitter or Facebook

Email Ayisha Sereni

Amazon Presents a Prime Opportunity to Transform a City’s Housing Market—but Where?

Amazon’s announcement that it plans to build a second headquarters somewhere in North America to employ tens of thousands of well-paid workers has set off a frenzy of let’s-make-a-deal maneuvering among the nation’s urban officials, all desperately vying to land the online retailer. The winning city will be announced sometime in 2018. Suspenseful much?

So why are cities tripping over themselves to win the contract? It’s simple: The new Amazon HQ could become a true game-changer for most metros.

What’s at stake is as many as 50,000 workers—with an average salary topping $100,00—moving in over the next 10 to 15 years. That’s larger than the population of many small cities, and it doesn’t even include workers’ families and the array of support companies that will crop up wherever Amazon goes. It’s a big boon to local businesses and the coffers of cities which can collect higher tax revenue from its new residents. Plus, Amazon has pledged to invest about $5 billion in the construction and operation of its new facility. (It will maintain its original headquarters in Seattle as well.)

This kind of investment could turn a smaller, second-tier city into a superhot metropolis. It could reverse the fortunes of a long-struggling metro. Or it could be a feather in the cap of one of the country’s already desirable cities.

The new headquarters will, by necessity, profoundly transform the area’s housing market.

Rental and home sale prices are likely to rise sharply as builders race to put up amenity-laden condo and apartment towers near the new HQ, along with creating new master-planned communities of single-family homes in the suburbs, say real estate and corporation relocation experts.

“This projected is so highly coveted that even being on the short list will jump-start a lot of [residential] development activity,” says John Boyd, principal of the Boyd Company, based in Princeton, NJ, a corporate relocation specialist.

What sorts of cities are most likely to make Amazon’s short list?

Cities might throw every tax incentive imaginable to lure Amazon, but the online giant is looking for very specific qualifications for its second home. (Company officials declined to speak with realtor.com®, but the retailer outlined what it’s looking for in a request for proposals last month.)

The inventor of 1-Click shopping is seeking metros with more than a million people, for starters. These areas must also be stable, business-friendly, and attractive to potential employees. (The latter tips the odds against a Rust Belt city such as Detroit, despite its resurgence.)

The site will need to accommodate about 30 buildings and be within 30 miles of the population center and 45 minutes of a major airport. It will also need easy access to major highways and public transit.

But the thing Amazon will need most is lots of skilled workers, say corporate relocation experts. That means they’ll want to be close to top universities, and be in a place where young talent wants to live.

“All the major cities that are competing for this … are all markets that are consistently ranked as one of the most millennial-friendly,” Boyd says.

Despite such tall demands, it’s likely that Amazon will receive free land on which to build its headquarters and won’t pay a dime of property, corporate income, sales, and other local and state taxes, says Chicago-based attorney Andrew Scott, who specializes in corporate site selections at Dykema.

Cities can offset some of those losses by taxing the new residents the internet giant will bring in. And that money can go toward building new schools, expanding existing public transportation systems, and adding new government services for residents.

“Whatever city lands this thing, their reputation is going to go through the roof,” Scott says. “A lot of folks will say, ‘if this is good enough for Amazon, it’s certainly good enough for my company.'”

Amazon claims its investments in Seattle—where it has more than 40,000 employees—pumped about $38 billion into the city’s economy from 2010 to 2016. It also claims to have spurred an additional 53,000 jobs in the city as a result of its investments. (It has more than 380,000 workers and countless outposts, offices, and warehouses worldwide, with more opening each year.)

How important is housing to Amazon?

The question of just where all of these workers are going to live is usually the last piece of the puzzle, Boyd says.

Officials typically take stock of the housing within a 70-mile radius of their new site, he says. They look at what sorts of homes currently exist; what kinds of buildings could be repurposed, such as old malls and factories; and the supply of land to build rental and condo towers in the city and single-family homes in the suburbs.

These could be former industrial zones on the edges of a metropolis—areas that have fallen into disarray over the years or aren’t fully built out.

If Amazon’s new headquarters settle on the outskirts of a city, it could create a thriving “second-city-type area,” says Chief Economist Danielle Hale of realtor.com. “It will become a new center that people want to live around.”

Wherever Jeff Bezos‘ all-powerful company touches down, the apartment market is likely to spike, says Annie Radecki, senior manager at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Many of the firm’s younger, single workers are likely to prefer to rent inside city centers, particularly job hoppers who want to hedge their bets and might not intend to stay at Amazon long. Older workers, even older millennials with families, are more likely to veer toward single-family living in the suburbs.

“Right now, [developers and builders] assume Amazon is a gold rush,” Radecki says. But “it’s going to make affordability worse. Traffic will go up. Schools will get overcrowded. Services take time to catch up.”

And it might actually take longer to build new housing than the second headquarters. The problem is that the chosen city will need to create tens of thousands of new or retrofitted housing units in a short period of time, says Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders.

“That’s a tough ask,” he adds.

It’s tougher still when you factor in the national shortage of skilled construction workers—exacerbated by the rebuilding needs in hurricane-ravaged Houston and Florida.

What happens when a metro receives an influx of workers?

For a clue on the impact Amazon might eventually have, it’s helpful to look at Texas—in particular, Dallas. The city lured companies from all over the world with low taxes, an inexpensive cost of living, and affordable real estate. It boasts good universities and an educated workforce, making it catnip to employers seeking to leave costly, coastal metros and the high wages they have to pay there.

The Dallas metro area began seeing an influx of companies relocating and expanding there in 2008, when ATT relocated its corporate headquarters, and about 700 jobs, from San Antonio, nearly 300 miles away. Since 2010, more than 200 companies have moved into the region with many more expanding in it. That’s added about 500,000 jobs to the area.

Not surprisingly, there’s been a corresponding population surge in the Dallas area, which includes Fort Worth, Arlington, and other smaller cities. It rose by nearly 1.36 million people from 2006 to 2016, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

“The cost of housing has definitely been affected,” says Dallas-area Realtor® Debbie Murray, of Allie Beth Allman Associates.

And home prices have surged. In 2008, the median home price in the Dallas metro was $145,800, according to National Association of Realtors® data. Fast-forward to 2016, and the median home price jumped nearly 56%, to $227,100. Nationally, prices rose only about 19.8% over the same period.

The influx of new companies is now revitalizing smaller cities and suburbs around Dallas, too, turning places like FriscoPlanoMcKinney, and Allen into destinations in their own right, Murray says. Many companies are opening operations in these places, and workers are reluctant to live more than a 30-minute commute away.

“It completely changed the market,” Murray says of the influx of new residents. “It’s crazy.”

What’s the catch to Amazon moving in?

Amazon’s bounty isn’t likely to be shared by all—particularly by lower-income renters who might be forced out of their communities by rapidly rising housing prices.

“There’s going to be some pushing out,” says Andre Perry, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington, DC–based think tank.

He worries that minorities, especially, will suffer the negative effects of gentrification in Amazon’s future home city, as their neighborhoods see an influx of wealthier skilled workers flooding in. And after presumably giving the online behemoth a massive tax break, city government will have to strain to provide services for the new residents (even though those residents will pay individual taxes).

“Cities shouldn’t sell the farm to bring in a company because that tax revenue is needed … so they can have adequate transportation systems for people to get to work, so they can have quality schools and universities,” Perry says.

And, of course, even Bezos’ monster corporation could suffer the vicissitudes of an economic downturn.

“Any time you have that number of jobs resting on one company, your fate really depends on what that company does,” says real estate consultant Radecki. And with advancements in automation, artificial intelligence, and the rise in telecommuting, “you may announce 1,000 jobs today and then later automate 900 of them.”

“There [are] huge technical shifts going on,” she says. “What Amazon’s looking for today may not be what they need in five to 10 years.”

A bigger city would be able to absorb large job losses easier as it would have other high-paying industries to prop it up. But it could devastate the economy—and housing market—of a smaller one.

“Cities need to understand the risk of attracting Amazon,” Radecki says.

Infographic: National Association of Realtors® Debunks 4 Common Down Payment Myths

Sep 28, 2017, 14:43 ET

Preview: Realtors® Housing Minute: An Animated Review of Market Activity in August