Forest Park lags behind national housing recovery

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Apartment rentals a ‘landlord’s market’ in 2013

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Vacancy rates for apartment rentals are expected to remain low enough next year to maintain a “landlord’s market” and increasing rents, according to a forecast released Monday by the National Association of Realtors, a trade association. Looking at multifamily housing, NAR expects a vacancy rate of 4% in the fourth quarter of this year to tick down to 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2013. Rates less than 5% are considered a landlord’s market, according to NAR. On average, apartment rent is expected to rise 4.6% in 2013 after a gain of 4.1% this year, according to NAR. Other types of commercial real estate, such as office, industrial and retail, are also expected to see lower vacancy rates next year. However, multifamily housing in the apartment rental market is a standout due to particularly tight availability and rent increases that far outpace inflation, according to NAR. Metro areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates are Portland, Ore., with a rate of 2.1%, New York, at 2.2%, and Minneapolis, at 2.3%, according to NAR.

Two Caveats to NAR's Growth Forecast

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Smith: The fiscal cliff could bring
the recovery to a halt.

WASHINGTON, DC-Fundamentals in the commercial real estate sectors continue to improve as the relatively small amount of new space coming online is being easily absorbed, notes a new National Association of Realtors quarterly commercial real estate forecast. However, NAR’s forecast is based on assumptions that a resolution to the fiscal cliff is reached and borrowers have continued access to lending. If either or both of these situations unfold adversely, all bets could be off.

First the (relatively) good news: Vacancy rates over the next four quarters are forecast to decline 1.0 percentage point in the office market, 0.6 point in industrial, 0.2 point for retail and 0.1 point in multifamily.

Rents are also posting gains, NAR said. Office rent is expected to increase 2% in 2012 and 2.5% in 2013. Net absorption is expected to total 49 million next year. Annual industrial rent is forecast to rise 1.7% in 2012 and 2.2% next year, with net absorption projected to total 89.6 million in 2013.

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For retail, the average rent should increase 0.8% this year and 1.4% in 2013. Net absorption of retail space is targeted at 19.8 million in 2013. Finally, average apartment rents are slatted to increase 4.1% in 2012 and another 4.6% next year. Multifamily net absorption is likely to be 234,600 in 2013, NAR said.

To be sure, these numbers pale in comparison to pre-crash levels. “I think we all had expected the recovery to proceed faster than it has been,” NAR economist Jed Smith tells GlobeSt.com. “However, overall, the recovery is still moving forward.”

NAR, though, made its forecast on the assumption that Congress and the White House would come to an agreement on the fiscal cliff by year’s end. “If the fiscal cliff does happen, then unemployment will rise to 10% or 11%,” Smith says. “Under those circumstances, we would not expect to see the real estate recovery continue.”

Another wild card is the implementation of Dodd-Frank, Smith says. “Something that’s being discussed increasingly is the availability of financing,” he notes. “There are a number of regulations for lenders, especially for local and regional banks, that still have to be written. The concern is that these regulations will increase costs and tighten liquidity.” That too could impact NAR’s forecast, he says.

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Washington, DC

Erika Morphy Washington, DC reporter Erika Morphy goes deep inside the DC power scene to explore the link between Capitol Hill and your assets. Erika Morphy has been a financial journalist for 20 years. She’s been covering the capital markets for ALM since 2004. Contact Erika Morphy.

Chinese buyers lead foreign investment in US housing market

As the U.S. housing market slowly starts to recover, foreign investment is helping it along.

According to the National Association of Realtors, non-American buyers accounted for $82 billion in home sales last year. More than $7 billion of that is by the Chinese, who are now the second largest foreign home purchasers after Canadians. They’re buying high-end, multimillion-dollar homes from California to New York and paying cash.

“They’re probably the top 1 percent of the Mandarin speakers that are coming from China,” said Brent Chang, a Coldwell Banker realtor in Southern California. “They’re really the people who have their own businesses or maybe were part of the government.”

Some of these homes are specifically catered to Chinese buyers. Fox News visited a home listed at $8 million in Pasadena, Calif., that had two kitchens, the smaller one had ventilation for the cooking for aromatic or “stinky” foods like fish. It also has a lower level in-law suite and even a koi pond.

“People from China do a lot more business in their homes so they want their homes to really scream that they’ve made it and they’re successful, ” said Chang.

The Chinese like the U.S. because their money goes further. In Shanghai, $2 million might only get you a two-bedroom condo.

“You get a huge bang for your buck, you get land, you get good schools, you get a safe environment,  nice community life, ” said Linda Chang, a realtor who works with her son, Brent, in the San Marino and Pasadena areas of California.   

Chang says while many other real estate markets have suffered, her area has flourished thanks to Chinese and other foreign buyers.

“It’s been fantastic for the U.S. housing market because we have not suffered as other communities have,” said the elder Chang. “In fact, our property values have increased.”

While some of the Chinese buyers live in the U.S. full or part-time, realtors estimate about 40 percent of the homes are for investments. They’re snapping up houses in states hit hard by foreclosures such as Nevada and Florida. Some are buying two or three homes at a time.

According to Shanghai magazine Hurun Report, mainland China has almost 1 million millionaires and nearly half of them say they want to invest in the United States. 

“It’s a sign of their status,” said Betty Chan, who deals with Chinese buyers in Las Vegas. “You can show off to your friends and family that I can buy something overseas, not everybody can do it.”

Chan continued: “Most Chinese like to own a Mercedes … it doesn’t matter whether a Mercedes is a good car or not. It’s just showing their status in the community, so owning a foreign house is pretty much a prestigious status in China, so they’re proud to tell their friends: ‘Hey, I own a house overseas.'” 

Buyers from China also invested almost $2 billion in commercial property in 2011, or quadruple what they spent several years ago.

Commercial Real Estate Vacancies Slowly Declining, Rents Rising

WASHINGTON, DC–(Marketwire – Nov 26, 2012) –  Most of the major commercial real estate sectors show gradually improving fundamentals and are easily absorbing the relatively small amount of new space that is coming online, with a full recovery already in the multifamily market, according to the National Association of Realtors® quarterly commercial real estate forecast

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market has been slowly building momentum. “Job creation is the key to increasing demand in the commercial real estate sectors,” he said. “The economy is expected to grow 2.5 percent next year, and with modest job creation, assuming there is no fiscal cliff, the demand for commercial space will gradually rise. The greatest friction that remains is a tight credit environment, notably for smaller properties.”

Vacancy rates over the next four quarters are forecast to decline 1.0 percentage point in the office market, 0.6 point in industrial, 0.2 point for retail and 0.1 point in multifamily; however, multifamily has the tightest availability and is experiencing the strongest rent increases, well above the rate of inflation.

“The primary factor holding back greater job creation has been uncertainty over regulations and associated costs,” Yun said. “With the elections behind us and Washington apparently resolved to prevent a fiscal cliff, it’s hoped that ambiguity over regulatory issues will clear relatively soon so employers can understand the rules of the game and the layout of the field.”

NAR’s latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook1  offers projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data for metro areas were provided by REIS, Inc.,2 a source of commercial real estate performance information.

Office Markets
Vacancy rates in the office sector are projected to fall from an estimated 16.7 percent in the fourth quarter to 15.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013. 

The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently (in the fourth quarter) are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 9.6 percent; New York City, at 10.1 percent; and New Orleans, 12.9 percent.

Office rent is expected to increase 2.0 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2013. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is likely to total 21.7 million square feet in 2012 and 49.0 million next year.

Industrial Markets 
Industrial vacancy rates should decline from 10.1 percent in the fourth quarter of this year to 9.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.

The areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates currently are Orange County, Calif., with a vacancy rate of 4.3 percent; Los Angeles, 4.4 percent; and Miami at 6.5 percent.

Annual industrial rent is forecast to rise 1.7 percent in 2012 and 2.2 percent next year. Net absorption of industrial space nationally will probably total 93.4 million square feet this year and 89.6 million in 2013.

Retail Markets
Retail vacancy rates are expected to ease from 10.8 percent in the fourth quarter to 10.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.

Presently, markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco and Fairfield County, Conn., both at 3.9 percent; Long Island, N.Y., 5.1 percent; and Orange County, Calif., 5.4 percent.

Average retail rent should increase 0.8 percent this year and 1.4 percent in 2013. Net absorption of retail space is estimated to be 9.1 million square feet this year and 19.8 million in 2013.

Multifamily Markets
The apartment rental market — multifamily housing — is projected to see vacancy rates decline from 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter to 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013; vacancy rates below 5 percent are considered a landlord’s market with demand justifying higher rents.

Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates currently are Portland, Ore., at 2.1 percent; New York City, 2.2 percent; and Minneapolis, 2.3 percent.

Average apartment rent should increase 4.1 percent in 2012 and another 4.6 percent next year. Multifamily net absorption is likely to be 219,700 units this year and 234,600 in 2013.

The Commercial Real Estate Outlook is published by the NAR Research Division for the commercial community. NAR’s Commercial Division, formed in 1990, provides targeted products and services to meet the needs of the commercial market and constituency within NAR.

The NAR commercial components include commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and the NAR commercial affiliate organizations — CCIM Institute, Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors® Land Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and Counselors of Real Estate.

Approximately 78,000 NAR and institute affiliate members specialize in commercial brokerage and related services, and an additional 232,000 members offer commercial real estate services as a secondary business.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

1Additional analyses will be posted under Economists’ Outlook in the Research blog section of Realtor.org in coming days at: http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/.

2Beginning in the third quarter of 2011, NAR commercial forecasts have been generated based on historical data provided by REIS, Inc., and do not correspond with prior historical information from previous forecasts. This source permits coverage of more metro areas than were previously covered.

The next commercial real estate forecast and quarterly market report will be released on February 25 at 10:00 a.m. EST.

Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. News releases are posted in the website’s “News and Commentary” tab. Statistical data in this release, as well as other tables and surveys, are posted in the “Research and Statistics” tab of www.realtor.org.

New report shows local housing inventory shrinking

Login | November 27, 2012

New report shows local housing inventory shrinking

RICK ADAMCZAK
Special to the Legal News

Published: November 27, 2012

The number of homes for sale in Central Ohio continues to shrink, which is viewed by analysts as a sign of a strengthening housing market.

Last month the housing inventory for the Columbus region was 2.9 percent smaller than in the previous month and 16.7 percent smaller than October of last year, according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors.

The average number of days a home is on the market in Columbus, 93, is also down, 20.5 percent, from October 2011.

“Historically low inventory levels and a continued decline in the number of days properties are being marketed are positive indicators that we’re moving in the right direction toward reestablishing a stable, sustainable and growing housing market in the Buckeye State,” said Bob Miller, president of the Ohio Association of Realtors.

The Columbus figures are similar to what’s occurring statewide and nationally.

The report shows that across Ohio inventories of homes for sale remain at historic lows and that the number of days properties are being marketed continue to decline.

“The most recent findings provide continued evidence that the Ohio housing market is making headway in its recovery effort,” said Miller.

The National Association of Realtors’ October 2012 Housing Report tracks inventory of for-sale single-family homes and condos, median list prices and days on the market for 146 cities.

According to the report, lower inventories, combined with somewhat higher median list prices suggest that the housing market is ending the 2012 home-buying season in better shape than it was a year ago.

While lower inventories are a positive sign, the recent erosion in the median list price may foreshadow a dampening of recent increases in housing prices, however.

Notably, Ohio and much of the rest of the Midwest experienced a slight drop in the median list price last month.

Nationally, the inventory of homes listed dropped 17 percent, the median list price was unchanged and the median age of inventory was 11.81 percent lower last month than October 2011.

“The recovery that began in Florida more than a year ago has since spread to California, Arizona, Nevada and other parts of the west, with many of these markets registering dramatic declines in the number of properties for sale coupled with year-over-year list price increases of 10 percent or more. However, a growing number of Midwestern and ‘rust belt’ markets are registering signs of weakness, with list prices below the levels observed last year,” according to the National Association of Realtors.

Copyright © 2012 The Daily Reporter – All Rights Reserved

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Prudential Florida Real Estate Services Receives Real Estate Tech Titan Award

Prudential Florida Real Estate Services received the Tech Titan Award during RISMedia’s 17th Annual Power Broker Reception and Dinner at the National Association of REALTORS® Conference Expo this month in Orlando, Florida.

The RISMedia 2012 Real Estate Tech Titan Award, sponsored by Dell, was presented by Dell’s David J. Rodriguez, national accounts sales director, Small Business Solutions and Holly Knowlton Delgado, national account executive – Strategic Partnerships Social Media and Community Professional.

The Real Estate Tech Titan Award was introduced by RISMedia to honor companies whose progressive adaptation of new technologies better serve the real estate community.

“Rei and the Prudential Florida Real Estate Services Team are well deserving of this recognition and award as they not only embrace new technologies, they also understand how to utilize them to promote the importance of homeownership to their Sales Professionals and customers!” commented John Featherston, president and CEO, RISMedia.

Mesa accepted the award on behalf of Prudential Florida Realty’s Sales Professionals and Leadership Team with a special recognition for the company’s eCommerce and Marketing Division lead by Vice President, Stacy Benedict who also attended the presentation and event.

“Prudential Florida Real Estate Services focuses on growth and innovation especially when it comes to technology trends and we are proud to present this prestigious award to Rei and his Purpose Partners,” said Rodriguez.

“The Company humbly accepts this award and honor! As a proud charter member of RISMedia’s Real Estate Information Network (RREIN), we have been able to propel our reach through daily emails, timely video content, and monthly news updates that keep our sales professionals and consumers informed and engaged. Through our in-house technology marketing platform to auto-creating listing video tours that post to the company’s YouTube channel, REALTOR.com®, and the company website, we are able to continually increase our traffic and followers throughout the world and across many demographics,” said Mesa.

For more information, visit www.prudentialfloridarealty.com.

Schenck Recognized By National Society of Industrial and Office Realtors

Gregory J. Nooney, Jr. was also honored by the St.
Louis Chapter of SIOR for his 50th year anniversary in the
organization.

ST.
LOUIS – Lynn Schenck, SIOR, executive vice president, Jones Lang LaSalle,
recently was recognized at the National Society of Industrial and Office
Realtors Fall Conference with the Millie C. Hanson Award. Gregory J. Nooney Jr.,
SIOR, also was honored for serving 50 years in the organization.

The St.
Louis Chapter of SIOR honored the two at a member’s reception last week. Carl
Conceller, president, St. Louis SIOR Chapter, noted the contribution of both to
the chapter, “Greg has had a significant impact on the chapter since its
inception and Lynn is active not only in the local chapter, but nationally as
well. All of the members of the St. Louis chapter are proud to call Greg and
Lynn their colleagues.”

With a
career spanning nearly 35 years in commercial real estate, Schenck received her
award at an awards ceremony during the national fall conference, held in Los
Angeles, Calif. The Millie C. Hanson Award honors a female SIOR for her
distinguished career, contribution to SIOR and involvement in her local
community. The award is presented in memory of Mlidred C. Hanson who was a pioneer
for women in commercial real estate and had a long and distinguished career.

Schenck is
the director of leasing and sales for the St. Louis office of Jones Lang
LaSalle.  She was elected in 2003 as the
first female president of National SIOR, and has served as president for the
St. Louis SIOR chapter and the St. Louis Association of Realtors Commercial
Division. In addition, Schenck is a founding member of the Commercial Real
Estate Women of St. Louis. She has been named a Most Influential Business Woman
by the St. Louis Business Journal and received the St. Louis Association of
REALTORS’ Realtor of the Year Award. A graduate of Ripon College, Schenck
serves as a member of the board for Nurses for Newborns, the grants committee
for Ronald McDonald Children’s Charities, the Trailnet Leadership Council and
the real estate council of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Gregory
J. Nooney, Jr. was recognized for his Legacy Circle involvement and leadership
in the national SIOR community for 50 years. During his career, Nooney has been
involved in the development of several well-known buildings such as Pierre Laclede
I II and Interco Tower in Clayton to name a few.  He has also been involved in property
management and leasing for numerous institutional investors in the St. Louis
area. Mr. Nooney is an executive vice president at Solon Gershman, Inc., a current
member of the National Association of Realtors, the St. Louis Association of
Realtors-Commercial Division, and the Urban Land Institute.  In 1997, Nooney was appointed Chairman of the
Missouri Real Estate Commission by Governor Carnahan. Nooney has received the
Daniel F. Sheehan Lifetime Achievement Award from the St. Louis Association of
Realtors, the Missouri Growth Association Community Betterment Award, and the
Missouri Growth Association Eads Award.

Headquartered
in Washington, D.C., the Society of Industrial and Office REALTORS®
is a global professional organization that certifies commercial real estate
service providers with the exclusive SIOR designation. Individuals who earn the
SIOR designation adhere to the highest levels of accountability and ethical
standards. 78,000 transactions are completed every year by SIOR’s. Only the
industry’s top professionals qualify for the SIOR. Today, there are 3,000 SIOR
members in 630 markets in 33 countries. With nearly 60 members, the St. Louis
chapter is one of the largest and most active SIOR chapters in the country. For more information, visit www.siorstlouis.com or www.sior.com.

Apartment Rentals a 'landlord's Market' In 2013

Vacancy rates for apartment rentals are expected to remain low enough next year to maintain a “landlord’s market” and increasing rents, according to a forecast released Monday by the National Association of Realtors, a trade association. Looking at multifamily housing, NAR expects a vacancy rate of 4% in the fourth quarter of this year to tick down to 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2013. Rates less than 5% are considered a landlord’s market, according to NAR. On average, apartment rent is expected to rise 4.6% in 2013 after a gain of 4.1% this year, according to NAR. Other types of commercial real estate, such as office, industrial and retail, are also expected to see lower vacancy rates next year. However, multifamily housing in the apartment rental market is a standout due to particularly tight availability and rent increases that far outpace inflation, according to NAR. Metro areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates are Portland, Ore., with a rate of 2.1%, New York, at 2.2%, and Minneapolis, at 2.3%, according to NAR.

Copyright © 2012 MarketWatch, Inc.

As Commercial Real Estate Vacancies Fall Rents Rise

(Source: NAR) – Most of the major commercial real estate sectors show gradually improving fundamentals and are easily absorbing the relatively small amount of new space that is coming online, with a full recovery already in the multifamily market, according to the National Association of Realtors® quarterly commercial real estate forecast.

Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, said the market has been slowly building momentum. “Job creation is the key to increasing demand in the commercial real estate sectors,” he said. “The economy is expected to grow 2.5 percent next year, and with modest job creation, assuming there is no fiscal cliff, the demand for commercial space will gradually rise. The greatest friction that remains is a tight credit environment, notably for smaller properties.”

Vacancy rates over the next four quarters are forecast to decline 1.0 percentage point in the office market, 0.6 point in industrial, 0.2 point for retail and 0.1 point in multifamily; however, multifamily has the tightest availability and is experiencing the strongest rent increases, well above the rate of inflation.

“The primary factor holding back greater job creation has been uncertainty over regulations and associated costs,” Yun said. “With the elections behind us and Washington apparently resolved to prevent a fiscal cliff, it’s hoped that ambiguity over regulatory issues will clear relatively soon so employers can understand the rules of the game and the layout of the field.”

NAR’s latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook1 offers projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data for metro areas were provided by REIS, Inc.,2 a source of commercial real estate performance information.
Office Ma?rkets

Vacancy rates in the office sector are projected to fall from an estimated 16.7 percent in the fourth quarter to 15.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.

The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently (in the fourth quarter) are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 9.6 percent; New York City, at 10.1 percent; and New Orleans, 12.9 percent.

Office rent is expected to increase 2.0 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2013. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is likely to total 21.7 million square feet in 2012 and 49.0 million next year.
Industrial Markets

Industrial vacancy rates should decline from 10.1 percent in the fourth quarter of this year to 9.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.

The areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates currently are Orange County, Calif., with a vacancy rate of 4.3 percent; Los Angeles, 4.4 percent; and Miami at 6.5 percent.

Annual industrial rent is forecast to rise 1.7 percent in 2012 and 2.2 percent next year. Net absorption of industrial space nationally will probably total 93.4 million square feet this year and 89.6 million in 2013.
Retail Markets

Retail vacancy rates are expected to ease from 10.8 percent in the fourth quarter to 10.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.

Presently, markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco and Fairfield County, Conn., both at 3.9 percent; Long Island, N.Y., 5.1 percent; and Orange County, Calif., 5.4 percent.

Average retail rent should increase 0.8 percent this year and 1.4 percent in 2013. Net absorption of retail space is estimated to be 9.1 million square feet this year and 19.8 million in 2013.
Multifamily Markets

The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is projected to see vacancy rates decline from 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter to 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013; vacancy rates below 5 percent are considered a landlord’s market with demand justifying higher rents.

Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates currently are Portland, Ore., at 2.1 percent; New York City, 2.2 percent; and Minneapolis, 2.3 percent.

Average apartment rent should increase 4.1 percent in 2012 and another 4.6 percent next year. Multifamily net absorption is likely to be 219,700 units this year and 234,600 in 2013.

The Commercial Real Estate Outlook is published by the NAR Research Division for the commercial community. NAR’s Commercial Division, formed in 1990, provides targeted products and services to meet the needs of the commercial market and constituency within NAR.

The NAR commercial components include commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and the NAR commercial affiliate organizations – CCIM Institute, Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors® Land Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and Counselors of Real Estate.

Approximately 78,000 NAR and institute affiliate members specialize in commercial brokerage and related services, and an additional 232,000 members offer commercial real estate services as a secondary business.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

1 Additional analyses will be posted under Economists’ Outlook in the Research blog section of Realtor.org in coming days at: http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/.

2 Beginning in the third quarter of 2011, NAR commercial forecasts have been generated based on historical data provided by REIS, Inc., and do not correspond with prior historical information from previous forecasts. This source permits coverage of more metro areas than were previously covered.

The next commercial real estate forecast and quarterly market report will be released on February 25 at 10:00 a.m. EST.

Source: NAR